The 2012 polls for five state assemblies in India have been the most interesting ones in recent times. And the impact can be seen: some immediate and some long-term.
BJP has been defeated in most of the seats in Ayodhya-Faizabad belt, which is the epicentre of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. Congress has been routed in the family pocket borough of Amethi-Rae Bareily- Sultanpur for the first time. Akali Dal-BJP lost vote share in comparison to 2007 polls in Punjab, but got more seats this time, and returned to power for a record second time, thanks to development agenda in governance.
One in every four Catholics of Goa voted for BJP for the first time, helping it form the government in the sunshine state on its own. The anti-corruption mood of the electorate spelt nemesis for Congress.
Less number of Yadavs voted for Mulayam Singh Yadav’s (SP), but it still won spectacularly in UP with the support of Thakurs, Brahmins, Muslims, and even Jatavs, a traditional BSP vote bank. SP would not tolerate any goonda raaj this time around is Akhilesh’s post-poll pledge.
Writing on the wall is clear. No blind vote-bank politics will be encouraged by the electorate. The second set of impact will be felt in the 2014 general elections.
First, it’s for the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. The UPA has to make some drastic change of tactics. Be it the 2G scam or the Anna Hazare-led agitation, the government sent out indifferent reactions mired in legalese crafted by its lawyer-ministers.
The likely fallout for the UPA government will be put up with aggressive allies, especially Trinamool Congress, looking to keep it weak without toppling it, and the non-Congress CMs likely to provide it with a crisis-a-fortnight in the months to come. The ‘right-of-the-centre’ rush of Home Minister P. Chidambaram to operationalize the National Counter-Terrorism Centre did not find favours with the non-Congress CMs and helped SP consolidate within the UP’s Muslim electorate.
The ‘left-of-the-centre’ agenda of Congress as reflected through food security and secular platitudes is upstaged by the conservative mantra of ‘fiscal consolidation’ the Union budget. The social spending needed for food security and education as a right is in conflict with the conservative demands on a government coping with another global economic slowdown.
The next big political events will make the UPA government weaker. Election to 50-odd Rajya Sabha seats over the next few weeks is likely to bring down its tally in the Upper House of Parliament where it already is in a minority. And, the election of a new President in July can lead to a surprise win of the Opposition sponsored candidate if there is unity among non-Congress parties on this. The only way for Congress to avoid it will be to find a well respected minority or a Dalit leader for the post which the allies and even BJP may find hard to oppose, just the way Atal Bihari Vajpayee had found A P J Abdul Kalam.
Policy paralysis, sort of a hallmark of UPA II, is expected to further accentuate with an aggressive Mamata and muscle-flexing Sharad Pawar’s NCP as allies, and a non-dependent SP in power in UP, and Punjab and Goa lost.
The number of parties who favour early polls has arisen. Any Lok Sabha race would be wide open due to Congress’s decline and BJP’s inability to make equal gains. State satraps like Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Biju Patnaik, Mulayam Singh Yadav, J Jayalalithaa would all look for an opportunity to appropriate the national space.
Federal politics also got a boost in these polls. Brand Rahul took a severe beating. He was unable to save pocket boroughs in spite of 200 plus public meetings in UP where younger sister Priyanka, her husband Robert Vadra were also roped in. Congress top-brass was a picture of sycophancy as they tried to outdo each other for taking responsibility for the UP debacle. Perhaps, Congress is not yet ready for the largest elections in the largest democracy of the world. The 2014 polls are now too close for comfort for Congress, while for the rest it is an agonizingly long wait.
The rise of youth power (a la Akhilesh, Sukhbir Badal, Manohar Parikkar), the focus on development and stability agenda (Punjab-UP-Manipur), and support for anti-corruption plank (Uttarakhand and Goa) were visible in these elections. Voter spoke the last word, and New India voted for development and not caste or identity politics. It’s a lesson, indeed, for both Congress and BJP.
